There’s no doubt that it’s a bleak runoff outlook for most rivers in the Colorado Rockies this season, with the state in the midst of its worst drought on record.
Leading the pack is the Arkansas River, which as of press time April 8, according to the state’s SnoTel measurements, was recording just 12 percent of its average snowpack/water content for that date in the season.
The Arkansas River is the most commercially rafted river in the United States, drawing more than 250,000 rafters annually to a corridor that runs from the high alpine headwaters above Leadville, Colorado, through Buena Vista, Browns Canyon, and the Royal Gorge, and east toward Pueblo and beyond. As the 2026 rafting season approaches, outfitters up and down the valley are monitoring the potential paltry runoff while also preparing to welcome guests back — investing in equipment, expanding programming, and adapting to what may be a challenging water year.
The Arkansas River Outfitters Association (AROA) represents professional outfitters providing rafting, kayaking, and fly fishing experiences along the Arkansas River, and the considerable economic footprint of that industry. A recent economic value analysis puts commercial rafting and outfitter activity at between $50 and $60 million annually, supporting hundreds of jobs and local businesses throughout the Arkansas River corridor. The question hanging over the valley this spring, as it has in drought years past, is how much water will be in the river when July arrives, and how much water will be available to supplement recreational flows through the peak season of August 15.
About 75 percent of rafting guests come from outside Colorado, and their spending on lodging, restaurants, retail, and transportation ripples through Chaffee, Fremont, and surrounding counties across the summer months.
The 2026 season finds outfitters investing rather than pulling back. Operators across the valley have been buying smaller watercraft — inflatable kayaks, stand-up paddleboards — alongside expanding float fishing and guided shore fishing programs. It’s a deliberate hedge against variable water conditions, and it reflects a broader understanding of what the Arkansas actually offers beyond its headline rapids.
“This river is more than a recreation destination,” said Mark Hammer, owner of The Adventure Company. “Its reputation as one of the world’s best whitewater rivers is well deserved, but it’s also a lifeline for the communities along the Arkansas River Valley — every rafting trip supports local guides, restaurants, hotels, and small businesses that rely on a vibrant summer tourism season.”
“About 70 percent of our guests are booking Class III or lower trips, which shows that for many people, the Arkansas River is really about a fun, approachable, family-friendly day outside,” said Travis Hochard, COO of River Runners.
“It’s not just about rafting or fishing,” added Billy Marquis, owner of Arkansas River Tours. “It’s about getting families outside in nature, spending time together, and seeing Colorado from a different lens.”
That adaptability is informed by hard experience. Bob Hamel, executive director of AROA, guided his first river trip in 1979, later owned Arkansas River Tours, and has watched the industry navigate drought cycles, regulatory shifts, and the evolution of the water rights landscape for more than four decades.
“We learned lessons in 2002 and 2012,” Hamel said. “If we present the experience correctly and honestly, people are gonna have a great time. We know we can provide a good outdoor experience regardless. We’ve got options. That’s one thing that sets us apart.”
The immediate variable is the Arkansas River’s Voluntary Flow Management Program, a collaborative augmentation agreement that supplements in-river flows from July 1 through August 15 — the heart of the commercial rafting season. The program draws on imported water from the Western Slope, held in upstream reservoirs including Turquoise and Twin Lakes, with a portion earmarked specifically for the recreational boating component of the season. Other signatories include Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Chaffee County, Trout Unlimited, and the Southeastern Water Conservancy District. In a typical year, the program targets a minimum of 700 cfs during the rafting season and maintains flows to support the fishery year-round at a minimum of 250 cfs.
But this is not shaping up to be a typical year. Logan Myers, representing BV Paddlers on the citizen’s task force that monitors the program, shared an update from April 1. “The Bureau of Reclamation is anticipating being able to import about 6,500 acre feet through the Fry-Ark system, but does not expect to be able to allocate any of it to the Voluntary Flow Management Program,” Myers said. “As of right now, there will not be any flow augmentation during the July 1 through August 15 timeframe.” A final projection is expected May 1 when the group meets in Salida.
A separate water management situation adds complexity lower on the river. Pueblo Water needs to install a filter berm on Clear Creek Reservoir’s dam to stop seepage, which requires draining the reservoir significantly before June 1. If an upstream transfer to Twin Lakes can be arranged, the native flow release from Twin would be shut off and replaced with matching releases from Clear Creek — meaning no net increase in river flow. If the transfer can’t be arranged, the drained water would move on top of native flows.
David Costlow, president of the Colorado River Outfitters Association, offered a cautiously measured read on the season. “For the Arkansas it is a little difficult to predict the flow,” Costlow said. “We are hopeful there will be much more moisture in April than March and that the heat wave is over for a while. The low water season will most likely happen earlier than normal. This is the kind of year that brings out families. Bookings for many outfitters look to be normal at this point.”
Visitors looking for licensed outfitters and trip information for the 2026 season can find them at ARKANSASRIVEROUTFITTERS.ORG and RAFTTHEBEST.COM.
Hamel echoes that assessment without minimizing the stakes. “We’re going,” he said. “People are booking trips. The Ark has so many access points and sections that are conducive to the kind of trips we can offer. We’re just going to adapt.” He’s also candid about the longer view. “In the back of my mind I’m hoping it’s a blip, but the fear of multiple years in a row would be catastrophic for some. Bear in mind that agriculture uses 80 percent of our water. We’re in this 20-plus-year drought — and just look at the Colorado River situation. It’s a complicated system.”
The flow program, Hamel noted, remains the envy of other river basins in the state for what it represents: a formal recognition of recreation as a legitimate water use stakeholder. Whether it can operate in 2026 depends on snowpack numbers still developing through April.
Beyond the water picture, AROA members continue to run programming that extends the river’s reach into the communities around it. Each spring, outfitters partner with the Boys and Girls Club to take hundreds of local youth from the Front Range and surrounding areas onto the Arkansas — for many, their first time in the mountains or on a river. Whether 2026 is a blip or a downward trend that will continue as the Earth’s climate continues to warm and shift, remains to be seen.